The Linkedin Algo is currnetly showing me stories from 3 weeks ago. Hope you are getting that Christmas you predicted for yourself. But as I think about the year and some of the commentary that scared the bejesus out of me, this was it. My Struggle Bus episode 8 guest has been telling the most interesting data story of the year. There is no net new growth in Luxury fashion the UK market.
In fact this category, luxury fashion e-commerce, in 2025 is starting to feel like a first date with a billionaire who only talks about their “heritage.” 🥱👗The vibes? Impeccable. The price point? Eye-watering. The growth? …crickets. 🦗This is a UK story FY.
For years, the luxury strategy was simple:
Raise prices by 15%.
Call it “exclusivity.”
Watch the graph go up.
But the “sugar rush” of price hikes has finally hit a wall. 📉
As Sarah McVittie pointed out on the Struggle Bus podcast, we’ve officially moved from a “Growth Market” to a “Share Game.” But Sarah has been telling us this for a long time now, gathering data and publishing results. It may be trhe single best story of 2025. In the UK, fashion volume in 2028 is predicted to be the exact same as 2019.
The rising tide is no longer lifting all boats. In fact, some of the fancy yachts are taking on water.
The 3 awkward truths luxury brands are ignoring:
1️⃣ Gen Z is “Resale Native”: They aren’t just buying a bag; they’re calculating its 3-month exit strategy on Vinted before they even hit ‘Checkout.’ If your brand doesn’t hold value in the second-hand market, you’re not an investment, you’re an expense. 💸
2️⃣ The “Dangerous Middle”: If you don’t have Uniqlo’s technical utility or Sézane’s community-driven cult following, you’re just a logo in search of a personality. Affluent consumers are swapping “stuff” for experiences (wellness, travel, and not seeing another ‘10% off’ popup).
3️⃣ The LLM Shift: People are tired of searching for “Black Dress Wedding.” They’re asking AI for “something glamorous for a rooftop wedding that hides my tech-neck.” If your brand essence isn’t baked into your data, you’re invisible to the future of discovery.
The reckoning is here.
Brands can either remove the silos between marketing and trading, clean up their data house, and start treating e-commerce like a “redistribution problem”... ..or they can keep raising prices and wondering why the only thing growing is their unsold inventory.
Is luxury e-comm actually “dying,” or is it just having a very expensive mid-life crisis? See you at NRF Sarah
Episode here -
Thanks to Omnisend - still sending out emails without disruption as efficiently as elves in the North Pole.
ParcelPlanet Somewhere in the midst of all the BFCM madness is a pissed off customer not getting their parcel. That’s the competition.
Speaking of growth our other new sponsor Trustap have been doing this quietly for some time and have now found their voice.
